Код: 317443

Назва:

Системна динаміка в міжнародній економіці: європейський контекст

Анотація: The course is designed to acquaint NAUKMA master students with system dynamics modeling for the analysis of policy and strategy, with a focus on international (EU case) macroeconomics and public policy applications, and to obtain basic research skills, primarily using scenario ( system dynamic simulation) approaches. Based on the results of the education, master students will be able to operate with conceptual tools that enable them to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. The course also enables students to build formal computer simulations of complex systems and use them to design more effective policies and organizations. System dynamics course is embedded into specific subject area - international macroeconomics (EU case).The dynamic part of the course organically fits with EU macroeconomics. in the sphere of politic and policies, for example in the spheres of government national, foreign, regional, and sectoral policy. This course is also enabling students with the future goals in postgraduate studies to deep their knowledge and to be well- prepared theoretically. The students will manage with the range of core policy challenges facing the EU. As a result, students will manage to create the conceptually sensible path towards European integration of Ukraine. As a result, students can experience the long - term side effects of EU policy decisions, speed learning, develop understanding of complex systems and design structures and strategies for greater success. Students will be able to help future managers and EU public policy makers design and implement high leverage policies for sustainable success.to include principles for modeling complex dynamic systems, simulation models, experimental exercises and caser studies of successful applications for future scientific work and practice to simulate the sub - model endogenous structures from public policy point of view and global shifts, caused by macroeconomic exogenous shocks in those markets.

Тип дисципліни: нормативна

Рік навчання: 1

Семестр: 2

Кількість кредитів: 3

Форма контролю: залік

Викладач(і): Григор`єв Г.С., доц., д.е.н.

Результати навчання: РR 1. Formulate, analyze and synthesize complex systems based on knowledge of the structure and behavior of dynamic systems.
РR 2. Modeling decision-making based on the formulation of non-linear connections of dynamic systems of the EU economy and implement management decisions based on macroeconomic forecasting and decision-making by subjects of economic activity.
РR 3. Professional communication between national and foreign partners
PR 4. Strategic and operational management of projects for the revealing of the dynamics of growth, path dependence and the combination of negative and positive feedbacks points
PR 5. Adherence to the principles of academic integrity, including when creating analytical reports on final policy analysis.
PR 6. Selection of methods of scientific research, leverage points to intervene in the system and formation of tools for modelling dynamic systems and its application for EU system on the basis of a holistic approach and interaction with economic agents.
PR 7. Integration of individual work into teamwork and development of leadership qualities in the process of work for the purpose of managing the collective policy design and analysis of the systems.
PR 8. Collection, processing and analysing statistical data, scientific and analytical materials, necessary for solving complex economic tasks to converge tools for system thinking with the tools for modelling dynamic systems
PR 9. Taking into account global trends in the development of the economy and to be aware of the place and role of the EU in it and to determine the possible instability and oscillations of national economies based on the dynamics of economic, institutional, social and geopolitical phenomena.
PR 10. Use of software to consider the dynamics of system structure and behaviour (Stella Architect, Vensim)
PR 11. Determination of the current state of nonlinear relationships in systems with the help of simulation models, considering the elements of validation and verification and simulation approach.
PR 12. Justification of economic decisions regarding economic dynamics taking into account limited endogenous behaviour of the system and chaotic uneven fluctuations of the modern global economy subsystems (EU).
PR 13. Analysis of short-term and long-term causes and consequences of managing macroeconomic and political systems feedbacks on EU level.PR 14.
Using the scenario approach with a simulation application in the assessment of possible system structure changing.
PR 15.
Using the skills acquired in the training process for the formation of professional projects, including analytical agencies for creation of professional dialog between the groups, responsible for decision and implementation of the resulting action plan
PR 16. Formation of scientific and practical research skills and professional skill for scientific argumentation
PR 17. Orientation of students to both practical and scientific and professional activities (training of professional coaches in the field of system dynamics and EU economics)
PR 18. Use of non-standard teaching methods and creative approach
PR 19. Formulation of new strategies for assessing dynamics of multiple - loop systems


Спосіб навчання: аудиторний/дистанційний

Необхідні обовязкові попередні й супутні модулі: International Economics, "Econometrics".

Зміст дисципліни: This course is designed to provide students with practical experience in economic science research approaches and tools. We will explore tools that can help identify, analyse, and understand a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical phenomena, as related to appropriate types of EU sub - models. The focus will be on tackling important questions in international macroeconomics and developing problem-solving skills necessary to address them, including both quantitative and qualitative approaches. This course also offers students the possibility to evaluate the gap between Europeanization of different present EU countries and Ukraine. It would be useful to find the right vector of movement of Ukraine towards European integration. Macroeconomic and political risks in general reflects the ability of national economy to affect negatively on the strategic decisions of foreign agents (foreign investors and other foreign agents). The process of risk elimination, or at least its substantial mitigation is of great interest to explain for economic agents, government, and educational institutions. EU as macroeconomic and political system in general reflects the basic principles of system dynamics - holistic view on structure, which is responsible for its characteristics behaviour with negative and positive loops, which are providing convergence of national economies into self - developing complex system. This course is targeted to develop students' skills of mathematical and intuitive understanding to be well - prepared in conducting a research in the field of interested in exploring the interface and synergies between economics, system dynamics, and feedback thinking. The global economic challenges for emerging markets, their economic agents, and exponentially growing challenges for them on political arena have created a new wave of demand in the sphere of applied (EU) economic policy consulting. The main object of the study course "System dynamics in international economics - EU context" is application of system dynamic modelling on macroeconomic and international level for making changes into existing EU policy with the aim of narrowing the gap between policy objectives and real situation. Learning to think in systems is now part of change - agent literacy" The course consists of micro- blocks. The fundamental one is System Dynamics with practical application to International Economics and emphasis on European Union economic policy with dynamic scenarios evaluation across EU macroeconomics policies for the benefits of EU supranational governments, local authorities, and separate industries. The presented course is a modelling educational process aimed at defining an endogenous causal explanation for the problematic behaviour of EU policies. The students will have the opportunity to be in the role of macroeconomic and political experts (consulters in the sphere of system dynamics) which would help them in their future scientific, business, or public service career. The focus of this year theoretical and empirical analysis is on the current Global Food and Energetics Problem, caused mainly by Russian aggression in Ukraine and breaking of a huge export supply of food and energy resources from Ukraine to EU market with an unpredictable long - run effects, which has determined the choice of the research topic this year: "Macroeconomic and geopolitical aspects risks of the global food and energy crisis - EU case". The main questions, which students should answer at the end of studying: "Why EU macroeconomic policies from selected group have changed a lot under the war in Ukraine influence and how turn back the EU macroeconomic system, which is under great economic and political disturbance into dynamic equilibrium, after taking into account the macroeconomic factors, which have been learned?". The side effects of the shortage of import on acceptor of investment are also to be considered. In this regard it is recommended to apply, among others, system dynamics methods of simulation, which is being taught on Master - 1 level of education. Some references to application of system dynamics in CRA are provided below. In general SD modelling with EU international macroeconomics application develops four students' skills: systems worldview, computer modelling skills, applications, and communication and leadership. The credit (ukr .zalik.) is in the form of the final written report and the model, developed by students and the presentation of that written report The course combines lectures and seminars in the form of individual and collective tasks (teamwork), semifinal tests, written work assignment and final presentation (based on the system dynamics report fulfillment). The core task of the student consists in evaluating EU sub - models using the analytical methods and system dynamics approach. The special emphasis is on finding EU policy data indicators and ratings via special agencies web platforms (the World Bank, IMF - etc.). Multidisciplinary relationships The successful mastering of the training materials requires knowledge on several fundamental and professionally oriented academic disciplines provided by educational and professional program of higher education under educational training specialty of "Economics". This includes "Macroeconomics", "International Economics, "Econometrics". and model (brief presentation, model submitting and written report).


Рекомендована література: 3.Cavana R. Y. (editor), Dangerfield B. C. (editor), Pavlov O. - Feedback Economics_ Economic Modeling with System Dynamics (Contemporary Systems Thinking) (2021, Springer)
4.Baldwin R. E., Wyplosz C. (2019). The Economics of European Integration 6e (Chapters 14-19)-McGraw-Hill Education (2019)
Packages for system dynamics simulation - IThink, Powersim, Vensim and others.
Journals and other periodicals:
1.System Dynamics Review
2.International Journal of System Dynamics Applications
3.Journal of European Public Policy
4.European Journal of Political Economy
Other basic reading:
1.Feenstra, R. C. and A. M. Taylor (2014). International Economics. Third edition
2.Meadows D. (2008). - Thinking in systems. A primer / Edited by Diana Wright.- Chelsea Green Publishing. White River Junction, Vermont.
3.Bardach E., Patashnik E.M. (2015). -? A practical guide for policy analysis. The eightfold path to more effective solving. CQ Press; Fifth edition (September 29, 2015)
4.Shone R. (2001). _An introduction to economic dynamics. - Cambridge University Press. - 224 pp.


Форми та методи навчання: лекції семінари,командні проекти

Методи й критерії оцінювання: Evaluation of student performance for each of the planned types of work is carried out in accordance with the following criteria All tasks of the course are self-performed work. Works compiled by copying, transferring original texts without reference to sources, or composing text from ready-made blocks of original sources will be assessed as "unsatisfactory". All works are checked for plagiarism. Execution of educational tasks and work in the course must meet the requirements of the "Regulations on the Academic Integrity of Applicants in NaUKMA" (approved by order № 112 of 07.03.2018) - Access mode:

Мова навчання: англійська